NFL Locked Out

Super Bowl 44 was one of the high points for the NFL with a great game, some great background stories and a record television audience. But the NFL owners appear to be ready to risk all of the good will generated by a great Super Bowl on a lockout that could jeopardize the Saints championship defense.

Sportsbooks already have Super Bowl 45 odds out, but maybe they should have Super Bowl canceled as a final option.

Commissioner Roger Goodell is saying all of the right things and staying positive, but that’s his job. The outcome of pro-sports labor wars are largely determined by public relations of the league and the players association. When public opinion turns against one or the other, a settlement is usually quick to follow.

Goodell has to look like he thinks a deal is possible because the owners will be handicapped by public opinion if he doesn’t.

I don’t have a lot of sympathy for the owners. They claim to be losing millions, but they won’t open their books to the players association to prove it.

The publicly run Green Bay Packers are required by law to open their books and they seem to be doing quite alright. They are one of the smallest market teams in the league and ran a 20-million operating profit last year.

The 2010 season will likely go ahead without a salary cap. But that’s not going to drive salaries up much.

Teams know that there will be a salary cap back in place when they resume play and can’t afford to have big-money commitments on the books from a single cap-free season.

The owners are claiming that they’ve seen a 40 percent decline in profits which if it’s true, then it needs to be addressed, but they’re not willing to back up their claims.

If they start the season, I doubt they will lock out the players before the Super Bowl, but the following season is the one that is in the greatest danger of being locked out.

I expect the odds of Super Bowl 45 being canceled should be somewhat worse than the odds of the Philadelphia Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but better than the Green Bay Packers.

So I’ll take Super Bowl Canceled at +1550.