Dwight Freeney Suffered a Third-Degree Ankle Tear

The biggest Super Bowl betting variable in this weekend’s game is the injury status of Dwight Freeney.

The Super Bowl odds have moved a fair bit this week with the Patriots opening as 4.5-point favorites, plus or minus half a point depending on where you looked, before going to 6-point favorites and then back down to 4-points before settling at the current 5-point spread.

A lot of the movement is no doubt accounted for by money going to one side or another and moving the line, but Freeney’s status also has an effect.

For instance, on Monday the 25th, all of the news about the injury was positive. The line went from 4.5-points to 6-points that day.

On the 26th, when it was first suggested that Freeney’s injury might keep him out of the game, the line dropped to 4-points.

The news hasn’t changed much since then and the line slowly floated up to 5-points, although it is interesting that the worst news came on January 31st, and the line didn’t change much.

Now Freeney is sounding more and more like he will play. He is reporting improvement, but is still listed as questionable.

Will this cause the line to float more towards the Colts? I’d say probably not.

My theory is that the early line movement was due to Freeney’s injury status, but, as the game approaches, the massive amounts of public money become the only significant factor influencing the line.

The other big question is, will he even be remotely effective if he does play?

I think the answer has to be no. It’s a serious ankle sprain and he’s going to be playing in a brace which is going to effect Freeney’s mobility.

There’s no way that Freeney plays up to his normal standard and you have to factor that in when deciding where to place your bet.

Update:

Covers just published an article on Freeney’s injury that says a lot of the same things.

The gem comes from rexdale in the comments who noticed, “Indianapolis (has gone) 8-0 in last 8 meaningful game WITHOUT Dwight Freeney.”