New York Jets NFL Betting Preview

New York Jets 2010-2011 Season Preview

On August 1, 2010, In NFL Preview, By MikeRose

A Look Back – The combination of a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback probably wasn’t meant to go this well. However, QB Mark Sanchez and HC Rex Ryan pulled it off. Not only did the New York Jets make it to the playoffs, but they ended up coming up a few drives shy of the Super Bowl as well.

Key Addition – DB Antonio Cromartie – In an offseason that was full of moves, Cromartie might be the most important asset the Jets picked up this year. Cromartie will immediately become the most feared second corner in the game, and lining up next to the great DB Darrelle Revis should provide plenty of INT opportunities. Cromartie will quite often be left on an island thanks to the blitz packages that Ryan draws up, but he is good enough to create another island that rivals “Revis Island.”

Key Loss – RB Thomas Jones – The Jets had the top rushing offense in the NFL last year, and it was really thanks to Jones. He rushed for 1,402 yards and totaled 14 TDs on the season to pace an offense that averaged 172.2 YPG on the ground. Yes, Jones was replaced by RB LaDainian Tomlinson in the offseason, but there is a big question as to whether or not LT can really do the same type of damage at this point in his career that Jones did last year.

2010 Will Be a Success if… – QB Mark Sanchez steps it up just a tad. No one is asking Sanchez to throw the ball 40 times per game. The only thing Ryan wants from his franchise quarterback is to not screw up. Tossing 20 picks a year ago was unacceptable for a team that focuses on running the ball and playing sound defense. There are plenty of targets at Sanchez’s disposal this year, especially when WR Santonio Holmes comes back from his four game suspension to start the season. The USC product just has to figure out how to put the ball in good spots and make sound decisions, even if that means throwing the ball away or taking a sack.

The Crucial Game – Ryan would love nothing more than to open the Meadowlands in style with a ‘W’ against his former team. The Ravens might be the best team in the AFC this season, and they’re coming to town in Week 1. Expect to see the Jets try to prove that they are the most physical team in football that night, and if they succeed, their season will be off to the finest of starts.

Predictions – Though the Jets might have a better team this year than last, expecting them to make it to the playoffs again is going to be tough. Just look at this schedule outside of the AFC East. Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are all going to be hellacious matchups. New York will finish above .500 once again, but making the playoffs isn’t a given if the AFC East isn’t won. The New York Jets season wins over/under is 9.5 wins.

2010 New York Jets Regular Season Schedule

9/13 vs. BAL
9/19 vs. NE
9/26 @ MIA
10/3 @ BUF
10/11 vs. MIN
10/17 @ DEN
Bye
10/31 vs. GB
11/7 @ DET
11/14 @ CLE
11/21 vs. HOU
11/25 vs. CIN
12/6 @ NE
12/12 vs. MIA
12/19 @ PIT
12/26 @ CHI
1/2 vs. BUF

Can the Jets Grab Adalius Thomas Too?

On April 27, 2010, In Uncategorized, By Josh

Adlius Thomas has been released by the New England Patriots with most pundits agreeing that he will likely end up with the New York Jets.

Thomas played with Jets head coach Rex Ryan when he was the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, but there are several obstacles to Thomas becoming a Jet.

First, the Jets already have a bunch of linebackers having recently added Jason Taylor.

However, the Jets were hoping Vernon Gholston could become a hybrid linebacker-defensive end. They have just given up on that after two disappointing seasons at outside linebacker and now have Gholston playing strictly his natural defensive end position.

Thomas has already played as a hybrid outside linebacker and defensive end for Rex Ryan, so the Jets could have a place for Thomas in defensive packages that need a hybrid player even with a bunch of veteran outside linebackers already on the roster.

The other problem is that they can’t sign him unless they lose a free agent. Because it is an uncapped year, the top eight teams in the league can only sign a free agent after they have lost a free agent to another team.

The Jets don’t currently have any un-alloted free agents, however other teams might grab unrestricted free-agents DE Marques Douglas or LB Ryan Fowler.

Of the two, Douglas is the more likely candidate. He is an older veteran who can provide depth on a contender or be a stop-gap for a year or two on a team that needs to buy time to develop depth at defensive end.

Fowler hasn’t contributed much to the Jets and it is unlikely other teams would expect him to contribute more in a different situation.

The New York Jets odds to win the Super Bowl currently sit at +1100. Expect them to become an even trendier pick if they add Thomas to their roster.

2010 NFL Draft Day 1 Winners and Losers

On April 23, 2010, In NFL Commentary, By Josh

Winners

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy is perfect for them and they got him exactly where he should go.

Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Berry is exactly what they needed. They might have been able to trade down a few spots and still pick him, but Berry is exactly what they needed.

Seattle Seahawks: Russell Okung probably shouldn’t have fallen to Seattle, so great for them to pick him up. Earl Thomas is another great pick at 14. The Seahawks probably did the best of anyone on Day 1.

San Francisco 49ers: Getting two offensive linemen, Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, in the first round complete remakes their offensive line in just one day. I’m guessing they traded up for Iupati because they thought the Steelers were going to grab him.

Miami Dolphins: I like what they did trading down. And I like Jared Odrick. They grabbed some extra picks and still got a huge piece in the first round.

New York Jets: Kyle Wilson is going to learn from the best and, in a year or two, beat out an All-Star corner for a job.

Indianapolis Colts: Jerry Hughes is an incredible value at 31.

Losers

St Louis Rams: It’s too easy for a quarterback to end up as a bust and they get too much money as the number one pick. Sam Bradford is a very good prospect, but not an elite one which is what you want with a number one overall QB. St Louis should have traded this pick and grabbed either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen later on in the draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trade your first round draft pick to someone who is going to use it to draft first round talent.

Undecided

Denver Broncos: I love that they traded down, but Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas probably could have been picked up lower down.

Having said that, I’m a Tebow believer. He will be the best quarterback to come out of this draft because he has the right kind of determination and attention to detail to put in countless hours to fix his throwing mechanics and he has the demeanor of a winner on-field.

If the Broncos knew that someone was going to grab Tebow before them, then trading up to grab him was a good move.

Betting on Defensive Tackles at the 2010 NFL Draft

On April 21, 2010, In NFL Commentary, By Josh

The NFL draft is rapidly approaching and which means it is time for NFL draft props. Draft props are a great way of putting your mock-draft abilities to the test.

The over/under on Defensive Tackles taken in Round 1 is 4.5 with the over paying +160 and the under just -180.

Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will almost certainly be gone in the top five, but the question is are there three more players talented enough to be worth a first-round picks and are there three teams who need Defensive Tackles badly enough to burn a first round selection on one of the remaining candidates.

Dan Williams of Tennesse will almost certainly go in the first round giving a third defensive tackle.

Jared Odrick, Brian Price and Terrence Cody are the three remaining DT’s who are considered possible first-round material and you will need two of three to go in the first round to cover the over.

Odrick was arrested in March, so some teams might shy away from him, but he seems like a safe, but not exceptional pick.

Price declared one year early and has some upside in a 4-3 system, but he only has one really good year to his credit, so it is hard to say if he will be able to consistently perform at a high level.

Cody is intriguing because he has been working hard in the off-season to trim off some of his massive bulk and teams will like that commitment.

Possible destinations include the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets, the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints.

My guess is the Cincinnati uses Tank Johnson to let them gamble on developing a DT with a lower pick, the Pats pass on DT and choose to address other needs first, Odrick goes to the Ravens.

That leaves one of Price and Cody to go to New York, Minnesota or New Orleans in order to cover and I don’t see either of them being good enough to cause those teams to ignore other needs.

The under looks like the play here, but at -180 it might not be worthwhile.

Tagged with: 2010 NFL Draft • Defensive Tackles

Bet Against Santonio Holmes and the New York Jets

On April 12, 2010, In Betting, By Josh

With the Jets acquisition of Santonio Holmes everyone is running to anoint the New York Jets as the 2010-2011 team to beat, or at least one of the teams to beat.

There are plenty of good reasons to like the Jets. Their beefed up their league best defense from last year and added offensive weapons that should give them one of the better offenses next season. But if you want to make some money, you should plan on betting against the Jets.

All of the hype they are getting for their off-season moves means oddsmakers can set the spread pretty much anywhere and expect the public to back the Jets for awhile. So, bet on the Jets’ opponents ATS in the preseason and the first two or so games.

Santonio Holmes is suspended for the first four games. When he comes back in Week 5, the Jets will get a big hype boost. Bet against them for a couple of weeks here as Holmes gets used to playing with this offense and the media gets over their Jets praise addiction.

The adjustment will probably take longer than just two weeks because Sanchez can’t buy Holmes time to get open deep the way Ben Roethlisberger did in Pittsburgh. Holmes will have a different role in the Jets offense and it might take the coaches a few tries before figuring out exactly how to use him effectively. In week 7-8 the media love-affair with the Jets should end and the lines will move to reflect their true value.

The Jets are relying on sophomore QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked great in college, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll figure out the pro game any more next year. All of that talent at receiver could go to waste.

The Jets got Holmes to help them win in the playoffs and as the season progresses Sanchez should develop as a player and Holmes should figure out how he best contributes to the offense. Watch the second half of the season for signs that Sanchez and Holmes are coming around. You could find some value betting on the Jets later in the season.

Tagged with: Mark Sanchez • New York Jets • Santonio Holmes

NFL Offseason Betting Update: Jets, Redskins

On April 7, 2010, In NFL Commentary, By Josh

The New York Jets are after a player who has the potential to greatly improve their odds, but might just be a dud while the Washington Redskins have an impact player who might be available.

Jets courting Jason Taylor

The New York Jets are making a pitch to Miami Dolphins free-agent linebacker Jason Taylor.

Taylor would improve the Jets pass rushing. The Jets only had eight sacks last season and a player like Taylor could add another 8-10 on his own and 4-6 team sacks.

Signing Taylor wouldn’t be without risks. He had a good season last year picking up seven sacks, but he is 35 and his play should be declining.

Haynesworth not trade-bait

The Washington Redskins are denying rumors that they are looking to trade Albert Haynesworth.

The speculation began when it was revealed that the Redskins offered Haynesworth in their quest for quarterback Donovan McNabb.

Haynesworth is still a dominant player and the only reasons to trade him are that the ownership is cutting costs, they think they can get a better deal by trading him, or the new coach doesn’t see Haynesworth as a fit for their system.

Tagged with: New York Jets • NFL Offseason Betting • Washington Redskins

LaDainian Tomlinson Goes to OT With Jets

On March 12, 2010, In NFL Commentary, By Josh

LaDainian Tomlinson‘s tour of Super Bowl contenders continued today with an interview with the New York Jets after yesterday’s meeting with the Minnesota Vikings.

New York Jets Flight Crew

LT was supposed to have returned home, but he missed his flight home to continue meeting with Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum over dinner.

Both the Jets and Vikings could make very good homes for LT who can not only run, but also catch out of the back-field. The Jets probably make more sense because the Vikings quarterback situation isn’t settled until the indecisive one makes his decision.

Tomlinson would make a good mentor for Shonn Greene and he’d also give quarterback Mark Sanchez an easy option to use before he gets in to trouble.

Joining the Jets number one running attack and solid o-line should also be appealing to Tomlinson, or any of the other aging running backs. That offensive line is largely responsible for the Jets’ success running the ball and they’d help LT’s ego a lot.

Despite being just one game away from the last Super Bowl, the New York Jets odds to win the Super Bowl are at +2200.

Tagged with: LaDainian Tomlinson • New York Jets

The Tough get Tougher: Antonio Cromartie a Jet

On March 5, 2010, In NFL Commentary, By Josh

The New York Jets upgraded what was already the top passing defense by picking up Antonio Cromartie from the San Diego Chargers.

New York Jets Flight Crew

Cromartie is tremendously athletic, but he’s makes some mental errors both on and off the pitch.

It cost them a third rounder that could turn in to a second rounder depending on how the Jets and Cromartie do, so they must be pretty confident that they can work with him.

Last season Lito Sheppard was supposed to be a similar gamble. It clearly didn’t pay off for the Jets. The Jets were able to carry Sheppard last season, so they should be able to carry Cromartie too if he proves to be a bust.

Tagged with: Antonio Cromartie • New York Jets

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts – AFC Championship Preview

On January 21, 2010, In Playoffs and Super Bowl, By Josh

Indianapolis Colts Cheerleaders

The rested and confident Indianapolis Colts team hosts a New York Jets team that has scrapped and clawed its way through the playoffs on Saturday, January 24, 2010 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The Colts (-350) are 7.5-point AFC championship odds favorites over the Jets (+275) and the over/under is 39.5.

The Colts are very similar to the Chargers, so the Jets clearly have a chance in this one. Both teams are passing teams with poor running games who also have a hard time stopping the run.

The Jets number one defense excels at stopping the pass, is okay at stopping the run but shouldn’t have to worry about it too much versus the Colts, and lives off of the running game on offense.

Peyton Manning is a better quarterback than the Chargers’ Philip Rivers. The Jets blitz-heavy defense will still get their hurries on the Colts, but they won’t get to Manning the way they got to Rivers because Manning can read the defense and release the ball a lot faster.

New York uses a lot of deception on defense. Against most quarterbacks, it lets them get to the quarterback and force bad passes. Against Manning, you’ll know it’s being effective when Manning has to throw short because longer options need a half a second more to open up.

When the Jets have the ball, everyone knows they are going to run the ball. The Jets have protected rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez by limiting the number of throws he has to make. Sanchez has responded by giving them exactly what they ask. The occasional reception without any big mistakes.

This was not the case earlier in the season where Sanchez turnovers cost the Jets a number of games, but we can hardly be surprised to see young rookies mature over the course of a season.

Sanchez and the Jets offense is successful because of their number one ranked running game led by Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene. They are able to wear down defenses and put up more points as the game progresses.

The Colts emphasized speed on defense in their game against the Ravens and had a lot of success stopping the Ravens running attack by rotating their starters out more. Expect the Colts to do pretty much the same thing against the Jets which should also help them limit the amount of wear in the latter stages of the game.

The Jets won their last meeting 29-15 as Manning and a number of other starters were pulled in the third quarter with the Colts up 15-10 angering Colts fans who wanted to see their team go for a perfect season.

However, considering how the Jets offense improves as the game wears on, it is difficult to say that it would have been an automatic victory had Manning stayed in the game. The Jets need to keep the game within one score to be successful and they were able to do that against the Colts starters.

Manning isn’t going to struggle against the Jets, but he’s not going to blow them away either. The Colts defense seems to have figured out the run a little and should be able to slow up the Jets enough for Manning to get them the win. But the 7.5-point spread looks a little high against a Jets team that can eat up the clock on offense and slow up even the best offenses when the other team has the ball.

Tagged with: AFC Championships • Indianapolis Colts • New York Jets

Colts as Vulnerable to Jets as Chargers

On January 19, 2010, In Playoffs and Super Bowl, By Josh

New York Jets Cheerleaders

Right now everyone is saying that the Colts pulled off the upset of the playoffs when they beat the Chargers after laughing at Rex Ryan for calling his Jets the team to beat.

Yes, it was an upset, but no it didn’t surprise a lot of people. Many of the pundits predicted that the Jets would win or at least keep it close enough to cover the spread largely because the Chargers had a below-average run defense and the Jets’ top-ranked defense allowed them the luxury of sticking with the run.

Now the Jets face the Colts who, like the Chargers, have a high-powered passing attack and a sub-standard run defense.

Is there any reason to believe that the Jets who can stop the pass and are strong on the run can’t repeat their feat of last weekend?

The AFC Championship Game odds favor the Colts by 7.5 points which is ridiculous considering the last time these two teams met, the Colts were winning 10-9 when they pulled the starters in the third quarter.

I never would have predicted it for most of the season, but I expect to see the Jets in the Super Bowl.

Tagged with: Indianapolis Colts • New York Jets • San Diego Chargers

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