Blog Archives

The New England Patriots (7-2) are coming off of an authoritative road win at Pittsburgh last Sunday night while the Indianapolis Colts (6-3) were rather fortunate to escape with a six-point home win over a Cincinnati team that committed five turnovers.

The NFL latest line for this contest is New England –4 and a total of 50.5.

The Indianapolis Colts did not commit any turnovers of their own last week, so with a +5 turnover differential, you would expect much better than a 23-17 win. In fact, Carson Palmer had considerably more passing yards (292) for the Bengals than Peyton Manning did (185) for Indianapolis.

We are getting in to the home-stretch of the NFL season where the teams that can truly win under pressure separate themselves from the talented teams that can’t function under pressure (ahem, Dallas). With that said, if you are going to bet on Super Bowl futures, you can get some pretty good deals if you think you know which teams have the right make up to win in high-pressure situations.

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) are coming off of their fifth straight loss Monday night vs. the Steelers while the Indianapolis Colts (5-3) are coming off just their third loss all year at Philadelphia.

The NFL odds list Indianapolis at -7 at home, with the betting total set at 47.

While this spread may seem low at first glance, consider that the Indianapolis Colts are still badly beat up and Austin Collie is the latest addition to the injury list after suffering a severe concussion last week that was very difficult to watch.

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both coming off of bye weeks and both had narrow wins before it, although the win by the Texans was more dramatic as they came from behind in the final minute.

The NFL betting spread for this contest currently lists Indianapolis 5.5-point favorites at home, with the betting total set at 50.

The Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs 35-31 when Matt Schaub hit Andre Johnson in the corner of the end zone from 11 yards outs with 28 seconds remaining after the Texans had never led in the game before that point; in fact overcoming a 10 point deficit in the last seven minutes.

The Indianapolis Colts have now had two straight covering wins since their bad opening week loss at Houston, including a 14-point road win at Denver last Sunday, while the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost their last two games by a combined total of 50 points.

The NFL odds have the point spread on this contest at Indianapolis (-7) on the road, with the betting ‘total’ set at 46.

The Indianapolis Colts have been simply unstoppable on offense this year, which is nothing new for them. Last week, they were without both Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez, while Reggie Wayne had the misfortune of being blanketed by a great cover corner in Champ Bailey.

A Look Back – After 14 wins to start the 2009 season, the Indianapolis Colts took their foot off the gas pedal. They lost both of their final two regular season contests, as they gave up their chance at the perfect season by playing a ton of reserves. It didn’t appear to hurt them during the playoffs either, as they came out of the blocks and played well in the AFC side of the postseason. However, losing Super Bowl XLIV was a painful defeat, as QB Peyton Manning was stopped for his quest for a second Lombardi Trophy.

For the first time this off-season, the Indianapolis Colts are not the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

I don’t know exactly when it happened, but the Indianapolis Colts were definitely at the top after their Super Bowl defeat and I noticed they were still at the top a few weeks ago.

Now the Super Bowl odds list the Colts at +1000 after being +800 earlier in the offseason, slightly behind the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys who both sit at +950.

Winners

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy is perfect for them and they got him exactly where he should go.

Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Berry is exactly what they needed. They might have been able to trade down a few spots and still pick him, but Berry is exactly what they needed.

Seattle Seahawks: Russell Okung probably shouldn’t have fallen to Seattle, so great for them to pick him up. Earl Thomas is another great pick at 14. The Seahawks probably did the best of anyone on Day 1.