For the first time this off-season, the Indianapolis Colts are not the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

I don’t know exactly when it happened, but the Indianapolis Colts were definitely at the top after their Super Bowl defeat and I noticed they were still at the top a few weeks ago.

Indianapolis Colts NFL Cheerleaders

Now the Super Bowl odds list the Colts at +1000 after being +800 earlier in the offseason, slightly behind the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys who both sit at +950.

The drop is likely due to the injury to third-round draft pick CB Kevin Thomas that leaves them a little thin in the defensive secondary. They aren’t able to sign restricted free agents because they need to lose another RFA before signing one and they don’t have any RFAs left to be signed.

The only way they’ll get back to favorite status is if they are able to trade for a CB.

The San Diego Chargers are always among the top teams in the NFL and their odds were no doubt helped by the draft where they filled a number of needs. They’ll be relying on players like Ryan Mathews to improve on LaDainian Tomlinson’s 3.3 yards per carry and Cam Thomas to fill the hole left by Jamal Williams.

The Dallas Cowboys shored up their offensive line and many of their players are still on the up-sides of their career, but I’m not convinced they should be the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

 

The New Orleans Saints joined their fans in celebrating their Super Bowl win yesterday parading through the city on carnival floats.

New ORLEANS SAINTS Super Bowl Parade

New ORLEANS SAINTS Super Bowl Parade

Head Coach Sean Payton showed off the Lombardi Trophy while players signed autographs, gave speeches and even sang.

Throngs of people pressed up against the floats causing the parade to stop at one point when one of the floats started rocking dangerously.

Tagged with:
 

Hartley Proves His Worth

Before the Super Bowl I was saying that the Colts had the kicking advantage, but that Hartley looked like he could become a great kicker with another great playoff performance.

He already had a 40 yard field goal in overtime versus the Minnesota Vikings.

We have seen so many times in these playoffs that there are plenty of good kickers who can play well all season but fail utterly under pressure. But there are only an elite few who can maintain that consistency through the playoffs.

The Colts have two kickers like that, Matt Stover and Adam Vinatieri.

And now the Saints have one in Garrett Hartley.

Hartley was a perfect 3/3 on field goals hitting from 44, 46 and 47 yards.

He won’t get the credit and attention that Drew Brees and Tracy Porter get. But put Hartley on another team, say the San Diego Chargers, and it’s a completely different post-season.

There aren’t many kickers who can deal with the NFL playoffs pressure, but the Saints have one who can in Hartley.

Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Saints are just +900 in 2011 Super Bowl odds while the Colts are favored at +700.

Tagged with:
 
Super Bowl 44

Super Bowl 44

The New Orleans Saints face the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, February 7, 2010.

The Saints are the sentimental favorites making the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history while serving as a symbol of rebirth to a city ravaged by hurricane Katrina.

But we’re not interested in sentiment. The Colts are 5-point Super Bowl betting favorites and the over/under is 56.5.

We have the two top seeds from the regular season squaring off in a Super Bowl since 1993.

Both teams have a potent aerial attack and solid, but not exceptional, defense.

New Orleans gives up an average of 357.8 yards per game and were burned for 475 yards against Minnesota in the NFC championship game, but they do have the best red-zone defense in the league.

They’re not going to shut down Peyton Manning, but they will try to punish him the way they punished Favre.

The problem is that Manning is the best at reading defenses and he knows that the Saints will be trying to hurt him early so they can beat him late. Expect Manning to throw a lot of short plays and hand the ball off for runs early as the Colts try to prevent Manning from taking too much early punishment.

The Colts will almost certainly put up some big points. The Saints weren’t able to stop the Vikings offense, so they most certainly won’t be able to stop the Colts.

New Orleans may have won the game, but Minnesota basically handed the Colts the blue-print on how to stop them.

The Saints only picked up 257 yards in that game and were in complete lock-down in the second half until overtime and the Colts know they don’t need to stop Brees, only slow him down.

Colts DE Dwight Freeney’s injury has been the biggest betting variable, but the Colts are 7-2 without Freeney so maybe we’re overestimating Freeney’s impact.

New Orleans will almost certainly put up more yards than they got against Minnesota. The Vikings have a much stronger defensive core than the Colts, but the Colts defense is good enough and they showed that they can execute a game-plan to perfection when they smothered the Jets in the second half of the AFC championship game.

The Saints will have a chance to win this if they can hold the Colts to field goals instead of touchdowns and Drew Brees and the offense can put up a bunch of points.

But Manning doesn’t look like he can be stopped. Not for more than a quarter anyway.

Super Bowl Field Goal

Super Bowl Field Goal

Matt Stover at age 42 and Garrett Hartley at age 23 sit at opposite ends of their careers.

Stover is the oldest player to ever play in a Super Bowl and has made 471 field goals in the regular season and already has two Super Bowl rings to his credit.

Hartley has made just 22 field goals, but he already has one high pressure score to his credit. He made a 40-yarder in over-time against the Minnesota Vikings to send New Orleans to the Super Bowl in Miami.

Right now the edge has to go to Indianapolis with Stover. The over/under for the number of points each kicker gets clearly reflects this.

Stover’s total is 8. Hartley’s is 6.5.

Hartley could establish himself as a clutch championship-caliber kicker with another big game.

Hartley has averaged 8.0-points in two post-season games and 7.4-points a game over the regular season while Stover has averaged 10.0 points in the playoffs and 5.6 points in the regular season.

Judging by those stats, the over on Hartley looks like a good bet unless you think he’s going to choke.

In both cases you should bet over if you think they’re going to get two field goals, because they both can expect 3-4 points from touchdown conversions.

The only problem is that these two offense tend to score touchdowns when they get close to the end-zone and their defenses aren’t spectacular.

Tagged with:
 
Dwight Freeney Suffered a Third-Degree Ankle Tear

Dwight Freeney Suffered a Third-Degree Ankle Tear

The biggest Super Bowl betting variable in this weekend’s game is the injury status of Dwight Freeney.

The Super Bowl odds have moved a fair bit this week with the Patriots opening as 4.5-point favorites, plus or minus half a point depending on where you looked, before going to 6-point favorites and then back down to 4-points before settling at the current 5-point spread.

A lot of the movement is no doubt accounted for by money going to one side or another and moving the line, but Freeney’s status also has an effect.

For instance, on Monday the 25th, all of the news about the injury was positive. The line went from 4.5-points to 6-points that day.

On the 26th, when it was first suggested that Freeney’s injury might keep him out of the game, the line dropped to 4-points.

The news hasn’t changed much since then and the line slowly floated up to 5-points, although it is interesting that the worst news came on January 31st, and the line didn’t change much.

Now Freeney is sounding more and more like he will play. He is reporting improvement, but is still listed as questionable.

Will this cause the line to float more towards the Colts? I’d say probably not.

My theory is that the early line movement was due to Freeney’s injury status, but, as the game approaches, the massive amounts of public money become the only significant factor influencing the line.

The other big question is, will he even be remotely effective if he does play?

I think the answer has to be no. It’s a serious ankle sprain and he’s going to be playing in a brace which is going to effect Freeney’s mobility.

There’s no way that Freeney plays up to his normal standard and you have to factor that in when deciding where to place your bet.

Update:

Covers just published an article on Freeney’s injury that says a lot of the same things.

The gem comes from rexdale in the comments who noticed, “Indianapolis (has gone) 8-0 in last 8 meaningful game WITHOUT Dwight Freeney.”

Tagged with:
 
Pierre Thomas Breaks Tackle for the Game-Winning TD

Pierre Thomas Breaks Tackle for the Game-Winning TD

Super Bowl time is also a time of prop betting insanity. There’s a prop bet to cover every angle including a bunch of prop bets for your favorite players like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Marquis Colston.

Super Bowl Quarterback Props

betED has a bunch of quarterback props like what will happen first? a touchdown pass or an interception.

As you can probably guess, both quarterbacks are heavily favored to throw a touchdown pass first with Brees at -240 and Manning at -300.

It’s probably not a bet worth taking at those odds because you have to risk a ton to win a little.

Another neat quarterback prop is the over/under on total passing yards. The total for Drew Brees is 284.5 yards while Peyton Manning is 308 yards.

I know the offenses are getting all of the Super Bowl hype, but the over seems very realistic for both players.

Super Bowl Wide Receiver Props

Who’s your favorite receiver?

After his performance in the division finals Pierre Garcon is getting a lot of love. He is the -160 favorite to score the first TD when matched up with Devery Henderson.

Not to take away from his performance against the Jets, but Manning is going to be able to hit his favorite targets against the New Orleans defense, so Garcon is probably not going to see the ball nearly as much as before.

The over/under on the longest pass reception for Marquis Colston is 22.5 and the over/under for total yards is 71.5 while Devery Henderson is 17.5 and 48.5 total yards.

There are a ridiculous number of props covering every player in the game. It’s over-done, but then I guess when you have two full weeks between the Divisional Finals and the Super Bowl, you can forgive the odds-makers for being as nutty as the fans and media.

Tagged with:
 
Chad, they're gonna keep fining you if you keep provoking them

Chad, they're gonna keep fining you if you keep provoking them

Chad Ochocinco, along with Chris Cooley, Ray Rice and Darnell Dockett, is launching the Ochocinco News Network (OCNN) with sponsorship from Motorola.

Ochocinco and his fellow players plan on reporting from the Super Bowl, updating a Web site and Tweeting.

Chad Ochocinco is well known for his use of Twitter. His Twitter use has gotten him in trouble with the NFL in the past, but his new Ochocinco News Network is probably going to get him in to his biggest trouble yet.

The NFL clearly likes to maintain as much control as possible over their communications and Ochocinco clearly threatens that, but he also threatens major news outlets who could potentially be hurt by the discovery that we don’t need sports reporters to break news.

Whether you like his antics or not, Ochocinco is clearly an intelligent athlete who could ask funnier and more insightful questions than most reporters. If OCNN gets a few scoops or produces some more colorful reporting, then the sports media boat will have been well and truly rocked.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if news executives used their influence on commissioner Goodell to put a straight-jacket on Ochocinco and guarantee that, for this next week, he’ll be very uninteresting.  Rupert Murdoch is the owner of a number of newspapers struggling to find relevancy in the Internet age and the owner of Fox, so his Newscorp company should have a lot of pull with the NFL.

Proving that you’re a dinosaur won’t be a good thing for the Goodell and the NFL, but I can’t see them letting Ochocinco have free range.

Ochocinco is risking some serious coin if he gets suspended, but I applaud him for pushing the boundaries. I think I might even follow Ochocino on Twitter now.

The sure winner is Motorolla. They’re sponsoring OCNN. And they can’t lose.

If Ochocinco gets the freedom to attend events and report on them, you know they’re going to get some good material and good buzz.

If the NFL tries to limit Ochocinco, they come off looking good being the ones to support poor Chad against the big, bad NFL.

Tagged with:
 
Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl Cheerleader

One of the strange quirks of Super Bowl XLIV is that it features two teams with sub-par special teams. There are some highlights, like the Colts veteran kickers, but in some cases, like kickoff return coverage, both teams are downright awful.

Super Bowl Punting

Pat McAfee is handling punting duties for the Colts while  Thomas Morstead punts for the Saints. Both punters have been above their career averages in the playoffs and look to be in fine form when their teams need them most.

McAfee is averaging 46.0 yards per punt while Morstead is averaging 48.2 which is well above his regular season average of 43.6.

The Saints are getting a couple of extra yards out of their punter, but McAfee is closer to his average and is probably more reliable.

Edge: Even

Super Bowl Kicking

Here we have Matt Stover of the Colts against Garett Hartley of the Saints. Both kickers are perfect so far this post season and both kickers were a pedestrian 81 percent in the regular season.

Stover is the veteran of the two and has been reliable in past playoffs, but Hartley has already made one kick from long range to win a game this post season and a good Super Bowl for him would go a long way to establishing him as one of the elite kickers who can handle big pressure.

Edge: Colts

Colts Return Team vs Saints Coverage

Indianapolis ranked 18th in kickoff returns in the regular season averaging 22.2 yards on kickoffs and 28th on punt returns averaging 5.2 yards.

The Saints have the worst coverage in the NFL. They are 29th on kickoff returns giving up 24.5 yards per kick and are dead last in punt return coverage giving up a whopping 14.3 yards.

Fourth and one deep in your own territory? Gamble, because otherwise it’s coming back.

The Indianapolis punt return may be one of the worst in the NFL, but it’s just bad. New Orleans is monumentally bad.

Edge: Colts

Saints Return Team vs Colts Coverage

New Orleans  ranked 4th in kickoff returns in the regular season averaging 24.4 yards on kickoffs and 31st on punt returns averaging 4.6 yards.

The Colts are 31st in kickoff returns giving up 25.3 yards while on punt returns they are 16th with 8.4 yards.

In the post-season, Reggie Bush has already knocked off a big punt return for a touchdown and with his athleticism there’s always the chance that he’ll burn you. But the punt return team doesn’t create enough space to spring Bush with any consistency.

Edge: Saints

Manning already has a Super Bowl MVP award.

Manning already has a Super Bowl MVP award.

Super Bowl 44 MVP odds are out now and they reflect the usual bias towards quarterbacks and running backs. Peyton Manning is, not surprisingly, the overwhelming favorite followed by Drew Brees and the running backs Pierre Tomas and Joseph Addai.

RB Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints +800

Thomas didn’t have eye-popping regular season numbers picking up just 793 yards on the season, but that’s mostly because the Saints didn’t give him the ball much.

His 5.4 yards per carry is good, but it’s a little inflated because the Saints pass heavy offense makes it a little easier to knock off a big run.

The big reason for putting money on Thomas is that he was clutch against the Vikings. He picked up one receiving and one rushing touchdown and he was also the one who converted the fourth and one leap in overtime that led to the game-winning field goal.

RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts +800

Similar to Thomas, Addai’s numbers are partly a product of an offense that uses the run only to set up the pass which means he won’t get many touches, but should pick up a little more yardage with each touch.

Addai had 828 yards on the season and averaged 3.8 yards per carry.

Addai hasn’t done much in the playoffs to justify picking him over Thomas. He had a decent game against the Jets which was marred by losing a fumble, but he was almost a non-factor against the Ravens.

Also if the Colts win, he has to go up against Manning for the Super Bowl MVP and Manning will get the nod unless Addai’s performance is clearly better.

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints +300

Brees is one of the best passers with the game and he has a lot of weapons on offense to show off his skill.

He threw for 34 touchdowns on the season, completed 70.6 percent of his passes and was picked just 11 times for a 109.6 passer rating.

His rating in the post season is even better at 116.1, but he had a bad game against the Vikings hitting just 54.8 percent of his passes.

The Vikings defense deserves the credit for not letting Brees play his game and, unless the Colts can pressure Brees the way the Vikings did, expect Brees to be back to his usual form for the Super Bowl.

QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts -250

Manning is the heavy favorite and why not? He’s already the regular season MVP and he already has a Super Bowl win to his credit.

Statistically Manning is a step below Brees. He threw for 33 touchdowns, completed 68.8 percent of his passes and was picked 16 times for a passer rating of 99.9.

Like Brees, Manning has stepped it up in the playoffs earning a 104.6 rating.

Manning’s performance against Baltimore wasn’t great, but the Colts were in control from beginning to end. Against the Jets, when the team needed him most, Manning was awesome picking up 3 passing touchdowns and a 123.6 rating against the best passing defense in the league.

With experience and a history of playing his best in big games, Manning is the clear choice. But he won’t pay out much, so maybe think of him as parlay fodder. Colts to win and Manning for MVP sounds right.

Tagged with:
 

 

 

 
 
PageLines Themes