With the Jets acquisition of Santonio Holmes everyone is running to anoint the New York Jets as the 2010-2011 team to beat, or at least one of the teams to beat.

There are plenty of good reasons to like the Jets. Their beefed up their league best defense from last year and added offensive weapons that should give them one of the better offenses next season. But if you want to make some money, you should plan on betting against the Jets.

New York Jets Flight Crew

All of the hype they are getting for their off-season moves means oddsmakers can set the spread pretty much anywhere and expect the public to back the Jets for awhile. So, bet on the Jets’ opponents ATS in the preseason and the first two or so games.

Santonio Holmes is suspended for the first four games. When he comes back in Week 5, the Jets will get a big hype boost. Bet against them for a couple of weeks here as Holmes gets used to playing with this offense and the media gets over their Jets praise addiction.

The adjustment will probably take longer than just two weeks because Sanchez can’t buy Holmes time to get open deep the way Ben Roethlisberger did in Pittsburgh. Holmes will have a different role in the Jets offense and it might take the coaches a few tries before figuring out exactly how to use him effectively. In week 7-8 the media love-affair with the Jets should end and the lines will move to reflect their true value.

The Jets are relying on sophomore QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked great in college, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll figure out the pro game any more next year. All of that talent at receiver could go to waste.

The Jets got Holmes to help them win in the playoffs and as the season progresses Sanchez should develop as a player and Holmes should figure out how he best contributes to the offense. Watch the second half of the season for signs that Sanchez and Holmes are coming around. You could find some value betting on the Jets later in the season.

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Pro Bowl Prop Betting

Pro Bowl Cheerleader

Pro Bowl Cheerleader

The Pro Bowl is like when a host throws out a bag of chips before a gourmet meal and calls it the appetizer. Sure chips can be good, but they lack substance and seem downright bad compared with the gourmet main course.

There is a huge array of Pro Bowl props available to keep the Pro Bowl interesting while we wait for the big Super Bowl game itself.

One interesting prop bet is, “will either team score three unanswered times?” Yes is at -175 while No is at +130.

I think the thinking here is that there’s a very good chance that lax play will let teams dominate for stretches making three unanswered scores easy to hit.

Another prop bet currently being offered is, “what will be the the first scoring play?”

The NFC has the better selection of quarterbacks, so they get the best odds for a field goal +230 and touchdown +245 while the AFC is at +260 for a field goal and +250 for a touchdown.

The AFC field goal number really jumps out. Does everyone think Nate Kaeding is going to choke at the Pro-Bowl?

No pressure? No problem. Those odds should be a little lower.

Both teams are at +12500 for a safety probably because nobody cares enough about the game to give up a safety for field position. But if you got a buck, it wouldn’t be a horrible bet.

There is also, “will the team that scores first win?” Yes is at -170 while No is at +125.

I’m not sure why Yes is getting so much love. When NFL players play in a tackling-optional game like this, there are plenty of opportunities for come backs.

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