Super Bowl 44

Super Bowl 44

The New Orleans Saints face the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, February 7, 2010.

The Saints are the sentimental favorites making the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history while serving as a symbol of rebirth to a city ravaged by hurricane Katrina.

But we’re not interested in sentiment. The Colts are 5-point Super Bowl betting favorites and the over/under is 56.5.

We have the two top seeds from the regular season squaring off in a Super Bowl since 1993.

Both teams have a potent aerial attack and solid, but not exceptional, defense.

New Orleans gives up an average of 357.8 yards per game and were burned for 475 yards against Minnesota in the NFC championship game, but they do have the best red-zone defense in the league.

They’re not going to shut down Peyton Manning, but they will try to punish him the way they punished Favre.

The problem is that Manning is the best at reading defenses and he knows that the Saints will be trying to hurt him early so they can beat him late. Expect Manning to throw a lot of short plays and hand the ball off for runs early as the Colts try to prevent Manning from taking too much early punishment.

The Colts will almost certainly put up some big points. The Saints weren’t able to stop the Vikings offense, so they most certainly won’t be able to stop the Colts.

New Orleans may have won the game, but Minnesota basically handed the Colts the blue-print on how to stop them.

The Saints only picked up 257 yards in that game and were in complete lock-down in the second half until overtime and the Colts know they don’t need to stop Brees, only slow him down.

Colts DE Dwight Freeney’s injury has been the biggest betting variable, but the Colts are 7-2 without Freeney so maybe we’re overestimating Freeney’s impact.

New Orleans will almost certainly put up more yards than they got against Minnesota. The Vikings have a much stronger defensive core than the Colts, but the Colts defense is good enough and they showed that they can execute a game-plan to perfection when they smothered the Jets in the second half of the AFC championship game.

The Saints will have a chance to win this if they can hold the Colts to field goals instead of touchdowns and Drew Brees and the offense can put up a bunch of points.

But Manning doesn’t look like he can be stopped. Not for more than a quarter anyway.

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